Search results for "VDP::Social science: 200::Urbanism and physical planning: 230::Spatial"

Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

2009

Published version of an article from the journal: Climatic Change. The original publication is available at Spingerlink. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9725-9 The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a giv…